Ngentsimbi ye-10: 00 ngexesha laseBeijing, uMongameli waseRashiya u-Vladimir Putin wathi uthathe isigqibo sokuqhuba umkhosi okhethekileyo kummandla we-Donbas kwimpuma ye-Ukraine.Ngokukhawuleza emva koko, kwavakala iziqhushumbisi kwindawo yeSikhululo seenqwelomoya saseBoryspil eKiev, ikomkhulu laseUkraine, eKyiv, Odessa, Kharkov, Kramatorsk naseBerdyansk, okuphawula amazwe aseRashiya naseYurophu kummandla waseYurophu.Ungquzulwano phakathi kwala mazwe mabini luye lwanda ngendlela ebanzi.I-Ukraine yonke ikwimeko yemfazwe.
Ukusukela kwixesha loshicilelo, ixabiso lerhasi yendalo yaseYurophu yokujonga ixabiso leTTF linyuke laya kutsho kwi-114 euros nge-MWh nganye.Luluphi uhlobo lweenguqu ezinzulu eziza kuvela kwisiganeko saseRashiya-Ukraine ukuzisa ishishini lamandla acocekileyo ekhaya nakwamanye amazwe, kwaye kuya kuchaphazela njani isantya sokutshintsha amandla emveli kwi-photovoltaic kunye namashishini amandla omoya?Okwangoku, kulindeleke ukuba amaxabiso ezinto eziluhlaza kwezinye iimveliso ze-photovoltaic ziya kunyuka, kwaye imfuno yomoya kunye nelanga eYurophu nakwezinye iindawo ziya kukhawuleza.
Amaxabiso egesi akhethekileyo anokunyuka, umthamo wokuthumela ngenqanawa uqinile kwaye amaxabiso ahlala ephezulu
Enyanisweni, i-Ukraine ngumthombo weegesi ezikhethekileyo kwimveliso ye-semiconductor yehlabathi, ngoko emva kolu ngquzulwano luya kuchaphazela ukunqongophala kwezinye iigesi ezikhethekileyo ze-elektroniki ezisetyenziswa kwii-semiconductors.Iimveliso ze-Semiconductor nazo zibalulekile izinto eziluhlaza kwiimveliso zokuvelisa i-photovoltaic ezifana ne-inverters.Ngaba kuya kubakho uthotho lweempendulo kwixesha elizayo?
I-Ukraine inomlinganiselo ophezulu weemarike ze-neon, i-xenon, kunye negesi ye-krypton, kwaye ungquzulwano luya kwenza izibonelelo ezikhethekileyo zokuvelisa igesi zingasebenzi okanye zonakaliswe.
Abavelisi abaninzi be-semiconductor bathi ngenxa yokuba iigesi ezikhethekileyo zifunyanwa ngokubanzi kumazwe amaninzi, kuquka ne-Ukraine, akukho kunqongophala kweemveliso kwixesha elifutshane.I-CEO yeMicron uMelotta uthe kudliwanondlebe olukhethekileyo kunye neBloomberg News ukuba inxalenye yegesi ebekekileyo ivela eUkraine, kodwa uluhlu olukhulu lulungisiwe, kwaye okona kubaluleke kakhulu, inkampani inemithombo emininzi yokubonelela, kubandakanya i-United States, i-European Union kunye. EAsia.Ukholelwa ukuba inkampani iyaqhubeka nokubeka iliso ngononophelo imeko kwaye unethemba lokuba iyakudamba.I-SK Hynix ikwaveze ukuba ikhusele uluhlu olukhulu lweegesi ze-inert, ngoko akukho mfuneko yakukhathazeka kakhulu.Kodwa ngelixa imfuno inokuhambelana nokubonelela, ayinakuthintelwa ukuba ezinye iigesi ezintle ziya kubona ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.Ixabiso le-neon, imveliso, lenyuka emva kwengxabano phakathi kweRashiya ne-Ukraine ngo-2014, xa ixabiso laliyi-$ 3,500 nge-cubic meter, ngaphezu kwamaxesha angama-10 aphezulu kunangaphambili.
Ngokukhula kongquzulwano phakathi kwala mazwe mabini, ixabiso legolide linyuke kakhulu.Eyona mathiriyeli ekrwada yeemveliso zokuncamathisela zesilivere eziqhelekileyo ezisetyenziswa kumandla elanga ngumgubo wesilivere, odityaniswe nexabiso lesilivere yaseLondon.Akukho ndaba zokunyuka okubanzi kwamaxabiso esilivere okwangoku.Ngoko ke, kwixesha elifutshane, akukho phawu lwamaxabiso e-paste yesilivere akhuphukayo.
Isiganeko saseRussia-Ukraine siya kuba naliphi ifuthe ekuthuthweni kweekhonteyina, ngakumbi kwiimveliso zamandla amatsha?
Ngokutsho kwabakhi-mkhanyo bakwaFang, amaxabiso othutho elwandle aya kuhlala ephezulu.Kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo, ixabiso linyuke nge-4, 5 amaxesha okanye nangaphezulu.Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-oyile kutsha nje kunokuchaphazela ukunyuka kwexabiso le-diesel, izinto ezikrwada zokuthuthwa kwee-container, kodwa nokuba umnini-nqanawa uyakwandisa ixabiso kule nto, ayiyi kuchaphazela ixabiso eliphezulu lokuthumela.Ukomelela akuyi kuba ngomlinganiselo omkhulu.Nangona kunjalo, isalathiso sexabiso lokuthumela i-container asiyi kuhla kwixesha elifutshane, umthamo wokuthutha ngokubanzi uya kuqhubeka uqiniswa, kwaye i-container chain supply chain iya kuba kwimeko eqinile.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngenxa ye-mutant strain ye-Omicron, ubhubhani kumazwe amaninzi aseYurophu waqhubeka nokusasazeka, kwaye ukuqokelelwa kwamatyala asanda kuxilongwa kwagcina imeko yokuthumela ngaphandle kwinqanaba eliphezulu, kwaye imarike yokuthunyelwa yayilungile kakhulu.Ukuphendula kumngcipheko weemfazwe zasekhaya, iYurophu inokonyusa ukugcinwa kwezixhobo, ngaloo ndlela iqhuba imfuno iyonke yeemayile zeetoni zokwanda.Lilonke, umthamo wesikhongozeli uya kunqongophala ngakumbi, kwaye ukubakho kwamaxabiso olwandle ukuntywila akakho phezulu, kwaye kunokwenzeka ukugcina imeko ekhoyo okanye ukonyuka kancinci.
Amandla omoya we-Photovoltaic, njl., utshintsho lwamandla ahlaziyekayo kwihlabathi jikelele luyakhula ngokukhawuleza
Ukuqala kwalo mjikelo wemfazwe yasekhaya phakathi kweRashiya ne-Ukraine kuya kuba nefuthe elihle ekukhawuleziseni amandla amatsha endaweni yamandla emveli.Imini yonke namhlanje, izitokhwe zamandla amatsha zibonise ukunyuka.Iqela le-Zhongli, i-Sungrow, i-Trina Solar, i-Energy Risen, i-Foster, i-JinkoSolar, i-JA Technology, i-LONGi, i-GoodWe, i-Chint Electric, i-Zhonghuan, kunye ne-Jolywood zonke zavuka ekupheleni.I-PV 50ETF ifumene i-1.53%.
Amaxabiso egesi yendalo anyukile kutshanje.Ayizondaba zimnandi ezi kummandla waseYurophu, apho amaxabiso egesi yendalo anyuke phantse ngokuphindwe kane kulo nyaka uphelileyo.Okwangoku, isinye kwisithathu segesi yendalo eYurophu sivela kwigesi yendalo, kwaye i-geopolitics iye yandisa ingxaki yokubonelela kwakhona.Ukusukela ngo-4pm namhlanje, i-Dutch TTF benchmark ye-benchmark ye-gas yendalo yexesha elizayo amaxabiso enyuka kwiseshoni yesine elandelelanayo, enyuka ukuya kuthi ga kwi-41% ngosuku olunye.Umongameli wase-US uJoe Biden ukwathe uzakuthatha amanye amanyathelo okohlwaya ngokuchasene neRussia.Naziphi na izohlwayo ezithintela ukufikelela kweRussia kutshintshiselwano lwangaphandle ziya kuphucula i-oyile, igesi kunye neemarike zemveliso ezifana nesinyithi kunye nezityalo.
Ukuxhomekeka kwegesi yendalo yendawo eYurophu kuphezulu kakhulu, kufikelela kwi-90%.Ngoko ke, ngalo mzuzu xa ixabiso legesi yendalo linyuka, abasebenzisi abaninzi bamashishini, amandla kunye nokufudumeza abajwayele ukusebenzisa igesi yendalo baya kufuna iindlela ezikhuselekileyo zokusombulula iimfuno zabo.Ukutshintshwa kwemithombo emitsha yamandla njengamandla elanga kuya kukhawuleziswa.
U-Wood Mackenzie uye wachaza ukuba ngokunyuka kwamandla okuguquguqukayo, iYurophu ineendlela ezine zokulinganisa imisebenzi yegridi: i-hydro pumped, i-gas yendalo ephezulu yezityalo zamandla.URory McCarthy, umhlalutyi oyintloko wale arhente, uthe, “Kwinkqubo zala maxesha zombane, amaziko egesi yendalo anokufikelela kumbane opheleleyo ngemizuzu emibini, kwaye anokusebenza ngenxalenye yomthwalo ngokufanelekileyo okwandisiweyo kwaye anokubonelela ngombane kangangexesha elingasikelwanga mda lokuvelisa.Indawo ekubonelelwa ngayo ngegesi yendalo ngokungaphazanyiswa.”
Kodwa ngo-2030, ugcino lwamandla ebhetri luya kugqitha kwincopho yerhasi yendalo njengeyona ndlela inexabiso eliphantsi yokulinganisa igridi yaseYurophu.Umthamo wokugcina amandla kuwo onke amacandelo eYurophu kulindeleke ukuba ukhule ukusuka kwi-3GW yangoku (ngaphandle kwe-hydropomped) ukuya kwi-26GW ngo-2030 kunye ne-89GW ngo-2040. UMcCarthy waqaphela ukuba ngo-2040, iYurophu ingaba ne-320GWh yokugcinwa kwamandla okufumanekayo ukulinganisa inkqubo yamandla. .Uninzi lwazo luya kuvela kwiinkqubo zokugcina amandla ebhetri kwicala lomsebenzisi.“Iindleko zokuvelisa i-oyile kunye nombane wamalahle nazo ziya kunyuka, kwaye imigaqo-nkqubo yokukhutshwa kwe-net-zero ekugqibeleni iya kujolisa kwi-decarbonisation yazo zonke iinkonzo zentengiso yombane,” utshilo uMcCarthy.
Umhlalutyi wenkampani iBloomberg New Energy Finance yakhe yakhupha ingxelo yophando, eyathi: EUnited States, njengoko izibonelelo zokuvelisa umbane welanga ziqhubeka zisasazeka kwaye zitya ixesha lokusebenza kwezixhobo zamandla egesi yendalo, oomatshini bamandla egesi yendalo kufuneka baqalise kwakhona kwaye cima rhoqo.Oku kwandisa iindleko zabo zokusebenza ngenxa yeemfuno zamafutha kunye nokuguga.
Okwangoku, xa ixabiso legesi yendalo liphezulu kakhulu, abatyali-zimali baya kuba nobulumko ngakumbi ekuthatheni isigqibo sokuba batshintshe indlela entsha yokuvelisa amandla ukuphepha ingxaki yale mathiriyeli ekrwada yexabiso eliphezulu.
Kakade ke, abathumeli begesi yendalo kwamanye amazwe bayathandabuza ukubona le meko iqhubeka.Bakwaza kufumana iindlela zokwenza amaxabiso erhasi abe ngaphezulu ngendlela ehlekisayo, kungenjalo ukuthumela ngaphandle irhasi yendalo kuya kuba yingxaki nje ukuba imeko yoshishino kunye nokulahlwa kombane yenziwe.
Xa kuthelekiswa nenqanaba lokuqala lengxabano yaseRashiya-Ukraine ngo-2014 (ngoJanuwari 19, 2014 ukuya ku-Matshi 20, 2014), ekusebenzeni kweeklasi ezinkulu ze-asethi, amaxabiso ezinto ezithengiswayo anyuke kakhulu, afikelela kwi-7.6%.Ixabiso le-oyile ekrwada linyuke nge-4.2%, kwaye ixabiso legolide lenyuka nge-6.1% (ukusuka eHaitong Securities.) Ixabiso eliqhubekayo le-oyile ekrwada liya kwenza ukusetyenziswa kwezithuthi zombane, iimoto ezicocekileyo, njl njl. kubaluleke ngakumbi.
Ngokumalunga nophuhliso oluzayo lwamandla amatsha, ngakumbi imboni ye-photovoltaic, kulo nyaka iya kuqhubeka nokuphucula.Ngomhla we-23 kaFebruwari, amaqela afanelekileyo aqikelele ukuba amandla e-photovoltaic esanda kufakwa kwi-2022 anokunyusa ngaphezu kwe-75GW, malunga ne-75-90GW.Eli xabiso lifaniswa nedatha yoLawulo lwaMandla kaZwelonke - amandla e-photovoltaic esanda kufakwa yelizwe kwi-2021 iya kuba malunga ne-55GW, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka we-36% -64%.Ngelo xesha, kuqikelelwa ukuba ukusuka kwi-2022 ukuya kwi-2025, umthamo omtsha we-photovoltaic welizwe lam unyaka wonke uya kufikelela kwi-83-99GW.Ngokwedatha evela kwiSebe lezoShishino kunye neTekhnoloji yoLwazi, ngo-2021, imveliso yelizwe lam ye-photovoltaic ye-polysilicon, ii-silicon wafers, iiseli kunye neemodyuli ziya kufikelela kwiitoni ezingama-505,000, i-227GW, 198GW, kunye ne-182GW, ngokulandelanayo, ukuya kuma-27.5%, 40.6%. 46.9%, kunye ne-46.1% unyaka nonyaka.Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kweemveliso ze-photovoltaic ngonyaka kudlule i-28.4 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika.
Ngokutsho kwengxelo yophando lwamva nje lwe-CITIC Construction Investment, i-photovoltaic yasekhaya efakwe amandla ngoJanuwari 2022 idlulile okulindelweyo, kwaye i-photovoltaic entsha efakwe amandla kwilizwe idlula i-7GW, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka we-200%.Phakathi kwabo, umthamo osanda kufakwa we-photovoltaics osasazwayo wawuyi-4.5GW, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka we-250%;umthamo osanda kufakwa we-centralized photovoltaics wawuyi-2.5GW, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka nge-150%.Izixhobo ze-silicon ezinyukayo, ii-silicon wafers, iibhetri ezisezantsi, iimodyuli, kunye nee-inverters kunye nezixhobo ezincedisayo, zonke iikhonkco kwikhonkco lezoshishino zigcwele ii-odolo, kwaye izinga lokusebenza alihli kodwa liyenyuka.Ixesha elimiselweyo lonyaka lalo nyaka linokuthi “lingabi buthathaka”.
Ukubhala oku, sinethemba lokuba abantu baseUkraine banokuzikhusela bona kunye neentsapho zabo, bachithe lo mzuzu ukhethekileyo ngokukhuselekileyo, kwaye babuye okanye bafumane ikhaya elinoxolo ngokukhawuleza.
Ixesha lokuposa: Mar-12-2022